The demand for liver transplants in the United States could increase fivefold over the next decade, according to a University of Florida study that was presented at a recent meeting of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.
University of Florida researcher Gary Davis estimated a 223% increase in liver-related deaths and a 528% increase in the need for liver transplants. One reason for the projected increase is that an estimated 90% of people with chronic hepatitis C do not know they have it. Although the incidence of new infections is reportedly declining, the current rise in cases has in part been blamed on intravenous drug use and blood transfusions that occurred before blood screening began in the early 1990s.
Dr. Davis reported that the prevalence of hepatitis C is expected to remain high for years and "cases with major complications of chronic hepatitis C will increase dramatically unless effective treatment can be developed which interrupts the natural history of the infection."
In related news, the Sydney Morning Herald reported on November 12 that a Parliament report has found that hepatitis C has reached epidemic proportions in Australia. About 200,000 Australians—including up to 60% of male inmates and 80% of female inmates—are estimated to have hepatitis C, "making it the fastest-spreading bloodborne disease in Australia," the newspaper said. However, the government has been accused of ignoring the epidemic because so many of the victims are prisoners and others with no lobbying power, according to the newspaper.
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