Modest increases in the incidence of transplant procedures and graft survival are forecasted, which, in turn, will lead to about 4% annual growth in the market for immunosuppressive drugs between 2003 and 2008, according to a new study.
In a study called Organ Transplant Rejection, the research firm Decision Resources, Inc., projects that sales of immunosuppressive drugs for organ transplant rejection will grow to about $2.5 billion by 2008 in the world's seven major pharmaceutical markets: the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
"Our projection of relatively modest 4% annual market growth between 2003 and 2008 is based on our expectation that fewer de novo transplants will be performed in that period than in 1998-2003," the company said. By 2008, Decision Resources predicted, sales of rapamycin (also called sirolimus), mycophenolate mofetil, and tacrolimus "will have reached their peak sales potentials of $300 million, $618 million, and $324 million, respectively." Novartis' cyclosporine products, Neoral and Sandimmune, are expected to earn $1.1 billion, and SangStat's SangCya, another cyclosporine, is expected to garner $270 million during the same period.
In addition to the market for immunosuppressive therapies, the new report addresses legislative, surgical, and other nonpharmacologic initiatives that the scientific community is pursuing to increase the organ supply or to obviate the need for transplantation. "These initiatives could substantially affect the market size for drugs to treat organ transplant rejection," Decision Resources noted.
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